Deriv Matches/Differs: How Digit Match Contracts Work

Matches pays when the last digit equals the digit you pick. Here is how it works and what to expect.

Last updated October 28, 2026

The rule

With a Matches contract you pick a digit from 0 to 9 and a duration in ticks. If the last digit of the final tick equals your digit, the contract pays out; otherwise you lose the stake. Differs is the opposite: it wins if the last digit is anything except your digit.

The odds

On Deriv's synthetic indices each last digit appears about 1 time in 10. So:

• Matches wins about 10% of the time. The payout is large compared with the stake, but it is set below the "fair" 10× so that, on average over many contracts, the buyer loses a little.
• Differs wins about 90% of the time with a small payout. Rare losses cost the full stake.

Always check the payout Deriv quotes before you buy; it is the figure that matters.

What a 10% win rate feels like

At a 1-in-10 chance, losing streaks are long and completely normal. The probability of 20 losses in a row is about 12%; of 30 in a row, about 4%. Any Matches approach has to be sized so those streaks are survivable.

Patterns and "hot" digits

Digit tools, including our free Analysis Tool, show which digits appeared recently. That is useful for understanding the market, but each tick is generated independently: a digit that appeared often in the last 100 ticks is not more or less likely on the next one.

How MatchPro approaches it

MatchPro watches recent digits on the five 1-second Volatility indices for short patterns (clusters, repeated pairs, short streaks and late returns), skips ambiguous cases, and offers a short signal window that you authorize. It applies your stake and session limits. It does not change the odds of a Matches contract.